tv Fast Money CNBC November 18, 2014 5:00pm-6:01pm EST
federal reserve board? can i get -- >> you have to go to the cftc. >> someone who works with his hands instead of some dope from m.i.t. making fun of everybody? >> thank you everybody for being here. "fast money" is coming up in just a few moments with melissa lee and the ph.d. gang. >> thanks. i will take it. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. your traders are tim seymour, dan nathan, steve grasso, and guy adami. guess what? "fast money" is moving. we're moving, we'll give you a sneak peek of our new home. that's coming up. plus solar stocks pop on the heels of an acquisition of sun edis edison. first, to our top story. tech stocks hitting new highs. the nasdaq at levels it hasn't seen in 14 1/2 years with just 29 trading days left in the year. which tech names do you buy and hold into 2015? guy adami? >> i think qualcomm. we talked about it a week ago
and it was trading $70. you have seen action like this in qualcomm. big moves to the upside followed by a flush. i think you saw the flush the other day. i think some of these cyber security stocks could work, palo alto networks bounced off $100. >> qualcomm has an analyst day this week. would you step into this name? you liked it. >> i like it, too. i think you have a situation where people have overdone the china concerns. there are regulatory risk that is have largely been addressed. i think this is a stock that around $70 you found a pretty good base. i like it a lot. >> which ones would you hold into 2015, tech names? >> i think qualcomm makes a shot at filling in the gap but it's not a great story. all the buybacks and everything going on here, they have a big buyback, there's not a lot of leverage. there's actually no debt and they have 28% of market cap in
cash. i think at some point you push for activists -- >> activists getting into qualcomm? >> there's no debt on this balance sheet and they have -- like i said, almost a third in cash. i would say one more name, ali i baba has pulled back. i think it closes toward the high of the year. >>. >> not stick with apple? everyone has bet against apple could not run this far. i shouldn't say this fast, but there's going to be more and more purchases going into christmas. what was brian marshall's term? the mother of all upgrade cycles. that's what you're looking at now. people are buying stuff for christmas, buying apple iphones. this is where you probably want to be. yahoo! i'm still in the trade. people are betting against that at that level but i think -- >> anybody the trillion dollar -- it seems every hour i look up at cnbc are a like the first trillion dollar market cap. no one is making a big deal of it. it makes me a little nervous.
listen, it seems like a little bubbly. we've talked about this, mel. you just rolled your eyes. >> based on what? >> just gained the market cap of home depot in the last month. gained the market cap of alibaba the whole year. >> what does that mean know? >> it means -- >> put it in relative terms. it's got a massive market cap but this is a global company which continues to have reinventing of products and is increasing -- putting product obsolescence into every one of their customers. >> literally they're supposed to do $200 billion in sales this year. all of a sudden estimates have gone from low single digit growth to teens, midteens, high teens. >> qualcomm which you said could take a shot is more expensive than apple. >> to me it's not about valuation. >> you talk about cash on the balance sheet. they have essentially $10 -- >> does it have to be about valuation? >> because that's also -- >> apple has not traded at a market multiple in i can't even remember how long. >> hold on. >> address something steve said? >> i think yahoo!, i think
ultimately you have a place where this has been trading in lock step with alibaba. ultimately you get to a place where people know there's significant upside in yahoo! based on a tax inversion scheme. right now you can priced a bit of a business. it's fairly valued. >> you're starting to see a divergence between the two because people are betting yahoo! could possibly be taken out. maybe alibaba tucks it in. you start to see alibaba give a little back. yahoo! people locked in the profits but if it stays above 0 $50 that's a trampoline. >> that's a new term. a trampoline. did you like that? >> it's a technical term. sorry to get so early. >> it sounds exciting. i'm on board with that one. >> speaking of tech, let's talk
go pro maker. joining us is brad ericsson of pacific crest. brad, great to see you again. >> you, too, thanks for having me. >> you're expecting upside when it comes to the october quarter. by how much? so took numbers out by a little bit over a couple million here largely around both the strong go pro sell through in their september quarter as well as december quarter but then really the incremental data point from the note today was around the checks weep had a chance to run in the last few weeks. really came away from the checks feeling incrementally more positive around go pro sales particularly in big box channels and now five weeks after the new products have launched, they're still catching up on supply in specialty channels. well took that as an incremental positive. >> is the driver to this upside purely go pro? at this point if we see a miss in any way on go pro, will we
see that fall out in amberella or are they diversified enough? >> one of the things that attracted us to the name was that they really do have other diversified growth drivers. these guys are exposed to ip video surveillance, automotive, other things like drones and wearable cameras and new verticals still getting established like law enforcement and retail. so we really like that from a diversified perspective going forward. go pro is certainly nice and we recognize a lot of people were familiar with the name but we are attracted on the other drivers i just mentioned. >> brad, they rely on go pro for revenues basically about 3% of revenues. sony though was a shocker for me. they rely on revenues from them about 10%. do you see growth in sony to elaborate more on melissa's question, do you see growth there as well. >> we're not looking -- i don't
think we're baking in much in the way of sony. sony obviously is looking to ramp up their presence as are a number of other competitors in the action camera space. frankly, given the traction and the momentum we think we're seeing here heading into the holiday season, we really think that go pro could potentially even offset any weakness from a customer like a sony. >> so, brad, you have a sector perform on go pro. i ask this question not to be a wise by but what sector is it, a hardware company, a tech company, a media company? >> that's the great debate right now. obviously they sell cameras, mounts, and accessories currently and generate a very small amount of revenue from what some are looking for in the future from media monetization. if you're looking at go pro five years from now, it certainly makes sense to evaluate the media opportunities, and we've certainly done our best to try and do that, but at this point
in the near term we're definitely looking at this company as a hardware traditional consumer electronics company that could potentially turn into something else down the road. >> brad, thank you for your time. appreciate it. >> thanks. >> brad erickson of pacific crest. he says the sell through will be a floor to the stock but the valuation will be a ceiling to the stock. what do you think? >> i agree with that. $65, the stock has done very well since that point and $95 is the top end. you get to the valuation, a fantastic holiday season they will have. that's baked in the stock. will they grow into next year at these levels? i don't think so. there's no way this is going to get a media company valuation and even if it did, it's way too high even if it has content and it's a media company valuation. >> yeah. i agree. not only that but here is the difficult part about the trade. almost ha of their float is short. every time you think you want to make a bearish argument about it, it's going to be right up your grill. you can't even short it. it's that expensive to do so. it's one of those ones in the meantime you almost have to see what the q4 sales look like.
i suspect it's going to be probably as good as it gets. i suspect this is a very seasonal company. >> but they almost have that apple aspect to it that kids don't want another camera. if you google it, you have a bunch of different cameras, activity based cameras. garmin has one. it's still pretty cool looking but they just want a go pro. they have to have that. >> a piece of hardware. >> i totally agree but i have missed this trade. i never thought this thing would rally here. >> and you regret it. >> and i regret it. >> breaking news on thakata. >> the department of transportation is calling for a national recall. this follows the d.o.t.'s evaluation of recent driver side air bag failure in vehicles out the current regional recall area. the d.o.t. says they know millions of vehicles must be recalled to address the defective air bags and are
aggressively investigating and it's far from over. they are asking for information from takata as well as ten auto manufacturers including ford, gm chrysler, bmw and toyota. the d.o.t. calling for a national recall of vehicles with certain takata driver's side air bags. >> will it impact the auto trade and granted mary thompson probably named every auto manufacturer that tells into north america at this point being affected. >> no, and, in fact, i think the auto trade has undergone a significant amount of headwinds on the back of the regulatory concerns coming out of the main ones in the u.s. if you look at some of the major exporters, the europeans and japane japanese, look at their currencies. you're seeing major expansion. >> the ceo of toyota north america was talking to phil lebeau and he made the point because they manufacturer in north america, that currency benefit does not exist. >> here the yen is going from
98ish to 115 and toyota has been $115 stock for most of the years. some fluctuation. i think the story is interesting but the fact the stock wudoesn' want to get out of its own way is a no touch. >> tesla shares popping after the latest update on the automakers' factory update. we'll debate whether the stock has more room to run. >> and a stock that's really running today, solar company sunedson moving into wind energy. shares are soaring. the ceo will give us a first on cnbc interview. just take a closer look. it works how you want to work. with a fidelity investment professional... or managing your investments on your own. helping you find new ways to plan for retirement. and save on taxes where you can. so you can invest in the life that you want today. tap into the full power of your fidelity greenline. call or come in today for a free one-on-one review.
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jack-in-the-box moving higher in the after hours session on earnings. mary thompson has the details. >> better than expected earnings for the fourth quarter from jack-in-the-box. a penny better than expectations. same store sales rising by 3.1%. then a 7.7% increase of its kudo ba mexican grill stores. >> got to go to guy adami on that one. >> jack. >> if it opens here it's an all-time high. the comps were great.
the margins were great. restaurant margins were 18%. you can't poke any holes in this. the only argument you can make at this point is valuation which has been the argument for the last $20. i still think it goes higher from here. >> but would you rather -- >> oh! >> jack-in-the-box, which has been a performer, or mcdonald's which has been an underperformer. >> i would rather mktz fcdonaldr sure. look at the move, all of 3% in the last couple months. terrible same-store sale numbers. if you look at expectations and valuation, this is a company that can support all of these things whereas i don't think jack-in-the-box can. i think there's a real di vi jens in the casual dining space. shares of home depot down. the retailer reporting mixed earnings and warning it could see more costs related to the data breach earlier this week. >> the data breach is what it
is. i don't think that's why it sold off. i think it's got ton a point and dan can probably speak to this, it's vaulg is starting to catch up to home depot. $10, $15 ago this quarter would have taken the stock up 5%. that's telling you something. maybe the stock has gotten ahead of its skis here. maybe it's time for a pull back. i think it continues lower from here although i would say i thought it was a decent quarter. >> lowe's is out tomorrow morning. >> lowe's and home depot are put in the same category. they are guy that is will grow sales in perpetuity in low single digits and they're buying back a ton of stock. you have two companies that are fantastic companies but they're also trading at all time highs heading into these events. i think the news was probably as good as it gets. at 20 times the current fiscal year for both of them, i don't think you chase them. >> but can you switch out and go into a home builder that's underperformed as of late -- >> you can. >> you want to. >> i'm in. i'm in kb homes but it seems to
me you have this inverse relationship where home depot and lowe's they're up around 18% year-to-date. it starts to get a little juice some of the home builders maybe way ahead of that spring selling season. >> you said you think that's a catch-up trade, like a kb home. do you think that's a catch-up trade? >> i think the home builders, and steve brought this up. i think it's an interesting trade. it's a very good seasonal trade. there's value in here. be easier in the small cap space. i think the higher multiple is deserved based upon they're getting higher big ticket items. the durables part of their business is growing. i think they deserve a higher multiple. if interest rates stay where they are, this is all we talk about on the desk is they're going lower. >> up next the 3-d printing company organovo popping 9%. dan? >> this is an interesting name obviously because it's in the space where people really can't quantify it yet. it has a small market cap. about $550 million.
it was up 10%. before this news came out, the thing looked like it was going to die a slow death with the rest of the group not in the biomedical space. i think the way to play 3-d print something when you look at some of the market caps and they're getting smaller and smaller, i think b.k. tried this, you make a basket of the smaller ones. you can't quantify what they will be like five, ten years from now. i wand to see 3-d get really nailed back to 30 between now and the end of the year. i think you will see some consolidation. i think there's going to be some growing concern about hewlett coming into the space and could you see a dash for people to get some ip. >> i think hewlett is the way you play this. they have the scaleability. >> can you put the "h" into hewlett? >> it's a huge problem. >> it's a huge problem. the whole thing. all of them are terrible. it's a huge problem, it is. but i think that's the only one that has the r & d, the real cash. i'm trying to think if the word
starts with "h" now. you have me screwed up. hewlett-packard is the way to play it. >> shares of tesla higher today. the company says its california factory received a major face lift and can produce 1,000 cars per week with the potential for more. >> i've loved tesla for a while. this is the first time i'm starting to get nervous about tesla. if you own the stock you have to use that 246 as the 50-day moving average. i wouldn't get too nervous just yet. i think the competition is coming up. >> but they have a four-wheel drive but -- >> they have problems with the doors, the gold wing doors. there's a huge problem. got it? china was supposed to be their big market and if we can't rely on china, i think it's going to be a problem going forward. that was their catalyst. that was their wind at their back. i think tesla will have competition not only from bmw -- >> toyota. >> from ford, from toyota, and from gm but i think toyota is the most aggressive competition. >> when steve passes away he can
give his tesla stock to his heirs. got that? >> i got it. thank you. >> an "h" word. >> wow. >> no need to explain that. >> are you going to give me a trade? >> i like tesla. we said 220 was the level. it held that level for a number of times. we said twad rade it against th level. >> you can all go to "l." >> "l" in a hand basket. >> the ceo of sun edison, the largest renewable energy developer joins us in a first on cnbc interview right after the break. the inside scoop on his first wind acquisition and what lies ahead for the solar panel juggernaut. stay tuned. from record breaking highs to major market meltdowns, every night the "fast money" team makes sense of the trades. serving up in depth analysis and actionable advice. >> this is a way to make a bearish short-term bet. >> all to help you prepare for the next trading day. >> i wouldn't chase this space
jumping into the wind project business in a major way announcing the acquisition of first wind and the stock soared today. the new hybrid energy move creating what sun edison said could become the largest growth driver outside the u.s. for the company. joining us is the ceo ahmad chat chacha chatchila. how do we know this isn't some kind of pivot? the concern of shareholders is always how does this fit in? >> our markets in solar is growing at 17% on average for the next seven, eight years, and we are trin ple our share durin that time. wind only doubles our available market. already our solar market is healthy. we want to super charge the company. >> when you were thinking about this sort of acquisition, were you also thinking about diversifying your revenue stream
away from the impact of the investment tax credit expiration at the end of the 2016. a lot of analysts are saying that's a great upside to the deal. >> what you said is many people think about, and what i showed them today is our solar volume post-itc and we showed them three gig watts. we're going from 1.7 to 2.5 to 3 gigawatts in 2017. >> one of the reasons people applauded this move today was the implied value of your being able to drop the assets from sun he hadton into this company. it almost seems like an arbitrage. can you explain this and obviously what we'd like to know is the potential for more of these deals, not necessarily when is the next deal but lay out how much capacity is out there to be bought and now that you've successfully diversified away from solar is there more in wind to do here or do you go some other part of the renewable scale? >> let's step back and think about something parallel to
yield curves which is the nlp market. there are 130, 140 of these. it's a half a trillion dollar market. all caps combined is $15 billion, $20 billion. we're just in the beginning. what's different about us is we have this consistent, small chunks distributed business global. it's not one pipeline that's almost like selling cars and planes into a platform like mlps. that is unusual. so we have a very high growth, low risk business in a market where investors want a lot of that. it's beyond half a trillion. so i think the sky is the limit. >> how much is investors looking for yield and don't know anything about your business? >> a lot actually. what we found is when we did teter ra form ipo we had $11.7 billion demand. 2300% demand.
people want that. >> so when we're talking about yield cos, we were talking about the asia one you filed for. you referenced an emerging market one. down the road should we think about wind as well as solar assets dropping into these? >> the beautiful thing about yieldc yieldcos, they don't care about technology. we did one with terra form. the next one is emerging markets, india, china, philippines, and since then we signed a lot of joint ventures and contracts that really will help us. >> actually the first wind acquisition will help you go deeper into specifically india. does it accelerate the time frame for that yieldco? >> the answer is not really because the development, melissa, of wind projects take a little bit of time, but i think we have enough volume -- what we showed investors today -- let me step back. when we took terra form public, we took it at 80, $90 million
cash for distribution. we showed investors we have enough pipeline for $800 million on our books right now. and we have leads and qualified leads that can triple that number. we can do a lot either way, with or without wind. >> what happens to some of the first wind projects because of the wind production tax credit expiration. you had it for ten years so it won't impact for however long it started. >> in this deal the deal justification based on no extension, we don't want to take that risk, but we have the first one which is an elite team which has projects in states where the pricing is high enough. >> thank you so much for coming by. hope to see you again soon. the ceo of sunedison. you have been in this name. >> this is an emerging market play today. they just did a deal with the philippines where they added 300
megawatts of solar power. they have assets in india and china. i love the story for the em play and obviously for the yield play. now a 5% yield. >> you have to decide what hat you're going to wear. if you're an investor hat, you have to side with timmy. if you're a trader, this pushed up within 8% or 9% of the 52-week high. probably squeezed a lot of shorts out. does it do a back and fill? i think it does. >> for some of you who like to ride the coattails of some big investors, david einhorn is the largest shareholder. i think when the stock was a little lower a few weeks ago, i think he gave a presentation. this i go is probably in it to win it for a while. you probably buy the stock on any pullback. >> coming up, zip up your sneakers and grab your workout gear. we're bringing back our favorite game, would you rather and looking at nike versus under armour in time for the holidays. plus concern for the china
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will soon be the new home of our show. plus, the latest data on china's home prices coming in weaker than expected. and one trader making a big, bullish bet on gold. dan has a very special "options action" for you coming up. but first let's play a little would you rather. >> i love this game. >> i know. >> initiating coverage on underarm you'under armour and nike a hold. which is a better bet? joining us is karina freedman. is this sort of like a pair trade in you think nike will suffer because under armour is succeeding? >> exactly. we think the runway for under armour is significantly better. nike is low double digits this year because of a couple big events like the world cup but we think it will be growing in line with the athletic segment. where we'd rather put our dollars is in under armour where
it's growing three times that in footwear in particular and 2.5 times what the market is growing overall. >> what impact in terms of your view does the international exposure of nike have because under armour is more domestically joriented play? >> part of our thesis is under armour is going to be able to replicate the market share gains they have in the u.s. they're 5% of the u.s. market. if we extrapolate that into the international arena, we think they could be eventually a 10 million brand. >> i actually agree with you but ill -- i will play devil's advocate. >> our primary sort of rationale is earnings power and right now with our 2018 number we can get to 240 and that doesn't incorporate i think better expected leverage -- better than expected laf eed leverage and b
traction in the footwear market. we think the number could be close to $3 and if you apply either a 25 multiple, a 30 multiple on that earnings power assumption you get to a high 80s, low 90s number. >> you're bullish about under armour gaining traction in the footwear. what about nike gaining traction in apparel? obviously if you flip their revenues, you see it's the inverse of each other. i like nike because you get that technology base. you have the nike fuel band. it's a tech company, apparel company, footwear company. does under armour have all those moving parts? >> they're growing it. they just purchased map my fitness which is their connected fitness platform. they're infusing some technology into their business model as well but for nike we really think you make a good point about their apparel. they're putting more effort into design, a lot more effort into merchandising and that will come at a cost. we think they're going to maintain that number one market
share but it will be more expensive to do so. >> thank you for your time. appreciate it. >> thank you. >> karina freedman. let's play the game. would you rather because karina obviously would rather ua. >> they're both buys. i think nike is a better play. they have actually price power. i think they have expansion. the basketball market, china is reaccelerating in a footwear market. >> under armour. it's really a technical thing. i think nike is a bit extended. i agree with tim with everything he says about nike but it's traded between 60 and 70 the last few months. i think you could see a breakout probably towards the end of the year. >> and you'd rather nike? >> i would rather nike. she's worried about the cost it's going to take them to gain that market share in apparel and i think they're going to be able do it a lot cheaper. i'd rather play nike. up 22% year-to-date. under armour up 58% . >> a split decision.
>> i'm going to go off the grib. >> lululemon -- >> that's not would you rather. >> that's off the grid. >> it's not part of the game. >> why don't you just play jack-in-the-box. time for pops and drops. pop for toyota motor up 1%. >> it was a big move for japan overall. it's all good for exporters. i think it works for toyota. >> pop for electronic arts up 4%. >> this stock has performed. year-to-date up 86%. going into the christmas season. been hitting it on the sports themed games. they've been hitting it on the action games. i still think it's a buy but be very careful with a stock up 86%. >> drop for ibm. >> this stock has been awful for almost two years. absolutely in my opinion no reason to own it. i know buffett loves it. i don't. >> big pop for virgin america up 13%. >> this is interesting. obviously when ipo'd last week. it's up.
you have investors building positions with a very small market cap. for those of you out there enjoying the wild morph and ves have to roll up your sleeves and see what you're getting. it's going to continue to be low flow and a good trading vehicle. i don't think you chase it at 37 bucks. >> we get a pop for organic brands. the heir's hairs of reggae legend bobby marley. they're lending their name to a line of cannabis products. it's cultivated from jamaican pot strains. it's a 30-year licensing deal signed with a seattle private equity firm. >> it will go through the roof. >> you think so? >> are you kidding me? marley association -- >> it's crazy. >> i think it's a great deal. >> just say no if you're a
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as you saw before the break, i left the boys downstairs. i'm on the second floor with the nasdaq that just underwent a $10 million makeover. this is where the ipo execution team sits. this is actually where the virgin america ipo we were just talking about that, hot ipo, took place. also sector analyst monitoring nasdaq listed companies. they sit back there. so the celebration to kick off this new space is under way tonight, and this is where the new "fast money" set is going to be. a very exciting night for us here at "fast" as well as for the nasdaq. we're joined by the ceo of the nasdaq, bob gri felt. >> good to have you here. this is going to be your new home. >> $10 million to upgrade the site. what are you getting out of it? >> we're getting "fast money" on the second floor. >> clearly. >> clearly priceless, but it's
an important cog in the nasdaq value proposition for our listed companies. as you mentioned, we can give them information, they can be here get it directly, but it's also very important to recognize when you had go public, part of that is to seek publicity, and this is a great visibility event. you can see the wonderful aspects of times square here. for our listed companies, we want to do brand building, visibility, this is the place to be. >> obviously the competition for ipo business is pretty fierce. is this part of the effort, the campaign, to say to companies, when you go public at the nasdaq, it will be flashier and sho showier? >> it's certainly part of the complain. our listed companies love it. we have a great year so far with ipos as you know. 175 companies have listed on nasdaq just this year. recently as you mentioned, we've had virgin america, other notable ipos here and they say the experience is truly something they remember for their entire lives. >> for a long time the nasdaq has had the knock of being primarily a tv studio downstairs but we actually have people sitting up here all the time now
analyzing the markets and analyzing nasdaq listed companies. what exactly are they doing and what sort of competitive edge does it give you? >> a big competitive edge. so it's important for us to bring the people aspect of the market in a visible role. you mention the ipo execution. so we have the person responsible for that, the auctioneer, the quarterback, here. so our listed company gets to interact with that person directly, see exactly how the book is developing, how the book will be priced, and control the release of the ipo into the marketplace. >> talk to us about the markets quickly. we'd love to get your perspective on the ipo pipeline as well asm & a. we've had a lot of deals announced even just this week. >> i think anytime you have high market valuations and cheap money, you'll see deals happening. but we would say, first and foremost, when we look at the performance of the companies this year,s been solid. the ipo companies have been solid. the pipeline is still very strong so we remain optimistic going into the balance of 2014
into 2015. we're going to have a very strong calendar. >> bob, thank you so much for your time. really appreciate it. >> bob greifeld, the ceo of the nasdaq. coming up next, gold jumping 1% today. we'll tell you how one trader is playing the bounce right after this break. much more "fast money" straight ahead. you can bring back a lot of things from a trip around the world. but you can't always bring back customer data. because many customers don't like it when their data moves around. can i go now? if you're going to do business globally, you need a cloud that can keep your data where it needs to be. today, there's a new way to work
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we got some breaking news on that kedah. phil lebeau joins us now on the fast line. >> melissa, we're following up on the news that the federal government nhtsa is calling on a nationwide recall of certain models. those are vehicles before 2008, so 2008 older models from ford, honda, chrysler, mazda, bmw. the concern is the air bag inflaters may rupture on the driver's side air bags and that's why they're calling for a nationwide recall of those our bags. two things stand out from a
conference call. one, they do not know the xant exact number of vehicles involved. the head of nhtsa said it's likely to be millions, tens of millions. and two, last night they had a conference call with takata and the nhtsa administrator said they called on takata to issue a nationwide recall. takata refused. now nhtsa is anteing up in terms of the pressure and calling on automakers to do this recall on their own and the language was fairly forceful in this conference call about the way they feel takata has responded. >> in terms of the impact on the automakers what do you think considering many of them are being impacted? >> too hard to say what the financial impact is at this point because they don't know, and in terms of the public, i think there's more confusion out there. nobody is going to stop driving their vehicle. it's certainly not going to hurt sales. it actually adds to more confusion than anything else. >> all right. phil lebeau, thank you so much for that, the update on the that
kedah air bags. china's home price is posting a second consecutive annual drop in october but tim has an under the radar way to play this recent slide. >> i think people have to be careful to play china on the macro, and today's numbers were less bad. but with the market linkage between shanghai and hong kong, sort of the local market and to hong kong, there's an opportunity to play both local stocks that now you can access but also i think the entire market gets pulled up by liquidity. the fxi to me, which has been largely dead money if you think it's been based upon investing in soes, some of the miners, i think is a very interesting way to get the exposure. a lot of people have made the run into the small cap and midcap names. i think the large cap names there's a lot of capacity that needs to go to work. the second part is understand chinese consumption is based on liquidity, not based on where the macro is. you want to buy the consumer names. we talked about nike, diagio.
the spirits manufacturers. finally the three horsemen of china, china mobile, alibaba and by due-bye -- baidu. >> this thing is up 23% in the last couple weeks. theg dx. there was a trade today -- first thing's first. coal volume ran three times average. but there was a big trade when the stock was 1970 today. someone sold a ton of downside puts in january 2016. it's over a year from now and they used the proceeds of the 12 and the 13 puts in jan 16 to buy a jan 1620/26 call spred. the break even is 21.25. look how this traded today. it closed at the highs above $20
here today, and this is a really key i think near-term support level. i would expect after such a big move in the gdx you see a bit of consol datidation and this is t chart over the last three years. it's down 70%. there's not a whole heck of resistance. this trader was targeting a break even of 21.25 and 26 looking way out over a year. really what you think about this trade, why did they sell the downside puts? why did they buy a call spread? they wanted to sell a lot of options. this is the price of options, implied volatility over the last year. look at this massive spike in just the last couple months during this breakdown. what they're trying to do is set up a bullish trade but get some leverage to the down sooird and take advantage of heightened implied volatility. >> it looks like a great setup in a short peerriod of time. >> we are awaitsing the vote on the keystone pipeline so lets get to john harwood. >> the real question is whether or not mary landrieu can find that 60th vote to pass the
keystone pipeline in the senate. all 45 republicans are supporting this bill, it's already passed the house. the 14 senators, including landrieu, have said they are going to vote in favor of the pipeline. that puts them at 59 and to clear the filibuster hurdle you need one more. a lot of speculation all day long. she's been on the floor making her arguments. most of what we've heard from the few undecided members has been no, i'm not voting for this. so can she flip somebody on the floor? we expect that vote to happen any minute, and if she gets it, that will be a feather in her cap, although some people are speculating this could help her hold her senate seat in a runoff against bill cassidy who was one of the sponsors of the house bill. that is not likely to make a big difference in mary landrieu's fate. she's down double digits to cassidy. i think that's a marginal consideration at best but she's giving it a shot and if she gets it, that will be something for her to talk about. if she doesn't, republicans will
come back and they'll pass it in january when they have a new majority taking over from harry reid and the democrats. >> all right. john harwood, thanks a lot for that update. we are waiting for that vote still. let's say it does go through if not tonight, maybe when the republicans take control in january. so oil prices, what happens to them? they go down presumably because the movement of oil is much faster? we don't need trains to bring the oil to where it needs to be? what are some of the ramifications. >> we could talk about whether it's positive for refiners or negative for them, but pwr, they have a -- they're the ones that are going to build the pipeline. if you want to play a really direct play, it's been factored in there was going to be no keystone. this has only upside risk in my opinion. if you see that it eventually gets passed, pwr is what you want to buy. >> we're coming right back. stay tuned.
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it is going to launch in australia and new zealand. again, that happening in march of 2015. market not too excited about the news but i bet a lot of people down under are. back to you, melissa. >> maybe they can watch "house of cards" now. thank you, mary thompson. or "orange is the new black," guy. that is the your favorite show. >> i love that show. >> you have no idea what i'm talking about. >> it's about inmates and they wear orange and -- >> are you making an australia joke? we have a lot of -- >> you said it. we did say it. flushed out on huge volume in the middle of october. we said here is your opportunity. i think the stock continues to move higher despite the new zealand, australia news. >> listen, guy had a very good call. the stock has been stuck here, flat lined over the last couple weeks. we know international expansion is a big part of the story. it's also going to be expensive to do that, too. >> that's true. >> if you're worried about margins and that sort of thing, this could weigh on it. >> stock has been stuck at 380
for the last three weeks. a lot of competition. hbo going streaming. that's what you worry about. i wouldn't touch it. >> a lot of room to grow internationally. i think it bounces -- >> you like netflix. >> 380 seems like it's building a nice secure base right here. i think it does bounce from 380. >> all right. time now for the final trade. let's go around the horn. tim. >> back to toyota and say the weakened yen helps these guys significantly. also they are getting very shareholder friendly. they will have 40% payout. that's a reason to own the stock. >> dan? >> i'm not coming at your apple gains here. you're all geniuses, stick with it. maybe consider some put protection. that's it. >> premium is cheap now, right? >> grasso? >> a stock that's in an attractive space, pandora, down 24%. but i think -- i know you're not supposed to buy a stock based on a takeout story but i feel like there's a lot of people who could take this stock out.
>> guy? >> when are we headed upstairs? >> next year. >> it looks beautiful. >> there's an elevator. don't worry about it. >> dan nathan is a funny guy. >> qualcomm bouncing. >> old jokes never get see you back here tomorrow for more fast. "mad money" starts right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer! welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach you about how this market works. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer, preferably at 3:43 a.